Trouble for Sub-Saharan Africa: Bobby Mugabe is Out of the Balance

By Trevor McDaniel

For almost 40 years, Robert Mugabe was the leader of Zimbabwe, until early November when his military placed him under surveillance and he was forced to resign a few weeks later, allowing his recently-ousted Vice President to be sworn in as his successor. His departure can have deep consequences for the stability of Sub-Sahara Africa, in the same way that the removal of Saddam Hussein had deeply felt, and dire consequences for the Middle East. If we look back, Saddam Hussein was a deeply troubling man and leader, known for using chemical weapons against the Kurdish people in Northern Iraq. Despite this, he was a beacon of stability in the Middle East, especially surrounding Iran, and his removal from office directly influenced the destabilization of the Middle East by fomenting sectarianism.

By most standards, Robert Mugabe is a similar character to Hussein, he is known as a dictator and a tyrant by his detractors, and a hero to his allies. For 37 years, he reveled in opulence and enacted policies that had a hugely negative impact on his people. As an example, in the 1990s, he (as the leader of the government) seized land from white landowners, redistributed it to “native” Zimbabweans, and ultimately caused a famine for his people. Despite this, his party, and the military supported him and kept him in power. By most standards, he was popular and he received support despite the failings of this policy.

His forced departure (he was taken into custody by the military before the military and his former party forced him to resign) leaves a serious question: when his national neighbors experienced instability in their leadership, Mugabe was a stabilizing force; will his resignation create and foster instability in sub-Saharan Africa in the same way that Saddam Hussein’s removal caused and exacerbated instability in the Middle East? I believe the answer is more difficult than a yes or no, because it’s both. It is likely to not help create stability in the region, because of the nature of his removal, it was not a consensual transition, and consensual transitions usually help stability in a region. Despite this, the transition was relatively smooth, there was not a vacuum or a large period of time when there was no control over the government; throughout the entire transition, his successor is ideologically similar to Mugabe. Finally, the transition to a new government was not the result of outside forces, in the same way that Saddam Hussein’s was overthrown as the result of United States interference.

In conclusion, the ouster of Robert Mugabe can have serious consequences for the stability of sub-Saharan Africa. While it is different from other forms of transitional instability, the sudden departure of a stable, long-serving leader can foment instability in a region that, to begin with, already has rather tenuous grip on stability.

References

Wednesday, Nov. 29, 2017, The New York Times Daily (Nov. 29, 2017) (download using iTunes).

Wednesday, Nov. 22, 2017, The New York Times Daily (Nov. 22, 2017) (download using iTunes).

Mugabe is the George Washington of Zimbabwe, Pod Save the World (Nov. 24, 2017), https://crooked.com/podcast/mugabe-george-washington-zimbabwe/.

Alexandra Dumitru and Raphie Hayat, Sub-Saharan Africa: Politically More Stable, but Still Fragile, Rabobank (Dec. 3, 2015), available at https://economics.rabobank.com/publications/2015/december/sub-saharan-africa-politically-more-stable-but-still-fragile/ (last visited December 1, 2017).

Muhama Bazzi, How Saddam Hussein’s Execution Contributed to the Rise of Sectarianism in the Middle East, The Nation (Jan. 15, 2016), available at https://www.thenation.com/article/how-saddam-husseins-execution-contributed-to-the-rise-of-sectarianism-in-the-middle-east/ (last visited December 1, 2017).