The Cobra Effect: Trump’s Big Beautiful Act Could Make Things Uglier in Panama’s “Green Hell”

For years, Panama and the U.S. have conducted diplomacy. In 1903, the U.S. supported Panama’s succession from Colombia, leading to US control over the Panama Canal through the Hay-Bunau-Varilla Treaty. Although not all Panamanian citizens agreed with U.S. control over the canal, Panama has benefited from US support.

Panama’s Darién Gap (“The Green Hell”) borders Colombia and Panama. The Green Hell has historically been used for migrant passage. The landscape, however, is nothing short of dangerous. Migrants are exposed to disease, robbery, sexual violence, and cartel exploitation. Chillingueros, local guides who know the routes, are often hired by migrants seeking passage. The Gulf Cartel and the Sinaloa Cartel are among various criminal organizations that control this region, who charge or extort migrants through this passage. Migrants are typically extorted to pay off smuggling debts and forced into prostitution or other crimes. In 2023, a record high of 520,00 migrants illegally crossed the Darién Gap. By the end of the year, trends of migrant drug trafficking notably increased.

The “Big Beautiful Act” (BBA) provides more than $75 billion in funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to enforce illegal immigration detention and deportation. Along with the BBA, Trump’s administration developed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) on illegal immigration between the U.S. and Panama. This MOU has provided approximately $14 million to the government of Panama to deport or expel illegal migrants in Panamanian territory. While data indicates an astounding 99% reduction in migration through the Darién Jungle, it is unclear whether this trend will be short-lived.

U.S. case law indicates that cartel threats to harm a migrant’s family, should migrants refuse to help cartels traffic narcotics, do not create a cognizable social group for asylum. This raises concerns about the realities migrants face if deported. Drug smuggling is intended to be deterred by the BBA, but instead, this bill could be benefiting transnational criminal organizations. It is disputable whether migration and narcotics smuggling are connected the way the current administration suggests. Data shows fentanyl is largely smuggled by persons with legal status in the US. Still, cartels primarily smuggle cocaine and methamphetamines. In 2024, 44.4% of drug traffickers were Hispanic, and 45.2% had little or no criminal history. Because asylum is such a multi-layered task for migrants, they may have no real recourse other than to comply with these cartels post-deportation.

While there is a sharp downward trend at present, it has not been long enough to be confident that the BBA’s effects will endure. Furthermore, cartels could be using alternative routes for the moment, before returning to passage through the Darién. For example, a Venezuelan cartel boat, operated by Tren de Aragua, was recently targeted by a U.S. drone strike in early September. Migrants’ desires to escape cartel exploitation could lead to strengthening cartel operations that the US is attempting to abate. Even if migration through the Darién slows for now, Trump’s BBA could just be giving cartels more control over migrants looking for a shot at the American Dream.

Article Written by Chase Newman

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